Stella Thio, PropNex
Stella Thio PropNex · The Second Move Framework
Owners planning the second move · Singapore 2026

A paid-off home is not a property that paid you back.

Same 30-year loan. Same 99-year lease. In the URA record the outcomes split from +46% to −21% over the same four years. That gap is decided before you sign, and the framework shows you where.

Send me the framework See the record first

The premise

Most people buy a property. Then pay it off for 30 years. Few ever build real wealth from it.

The record

288 condos checked against URA caveats. Over roughly four years the median gained +23.6%. Six lost money.

The framework

Six chapters on how the second move is decided, with the tables inside. Free PDF, sent to your WhatsApp.

288Condos compared≥10 resales in both windows
+23.6%Median psf gain2021/22 → 2025/26
6Projects that fellfive of them in the CCR
+46.4%Best of the 288the worst: −20.7%

URA caveat data, non-landed private resale (condos, apartments, ECs), median psf Sep 2021–Aug 2022 vs Oct 2025–Sep 2026, retrieved 18 Sep 2026. Past transactions do not predict future returns.

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Six chapters, the 288-project table, the exit-buyer checklist and the 2026 rules. No obligation, no hard sell.

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Is this you

You probably own the first one already. The question is what it does next.

01

My flat has gone up a lot. Is that real money, or a number that only exists until I sell?Median 4-room resale across all towns: S$408,000 in 2017, S$628,000 so far in 2026.

02

If I upgrade now, am I buying at the top of the cycle?The index rose 0.5% in Q2 2026. The spread between projects in the same quarter was far wider than that.

03

Will a 99-year lease still find a buyer in 15 years?Buyers already price the lease: 4-room flats with 80+ years left sold for S$708,000 this year; 50–59 years, S$550,000.

04

New launch or resale for the second move? Which one is actually safer?In the record, launches bought in 2021/22 have since resold anywhere from +33% to −9%. The label did not decide it.

The record

What four years did to 288 condos.

I took every non-landed project with at least ten resale caveats in both windows, compared the median psf, and ranked them. No selection, no favourites. This is what the resale market actually paid.

Where the 288 landed median psf, Sep 2021–Aug 2022 → Oct 2025–Sep 2026
Median gain across all 288+23.6%
Bottom tenth of projects (10th percentile)+10.4%
Top tenth of projects (90th percentile)+36.2%
Gained 30% or more71
Gained under 10%28
Fell6

By region the medians were OCR +25.9% (202 projects), RCR +19.0% (61), CCR +11.4% (25). Five of the six that fell are in the CCR.

Top five and bottom five resale psf, caveat count in each window
ProjectDistrictThenNowCaveatsChange
The Eden at TampinesD188491,24322 / 11+46.4%
The FloravaleD227671,11830 / 21+45.7%
Parc VeraD191,1111,57814 / 13+42.1%
Riverparc ResidenceD191,0221,44227 / 23+41.1%
CityLife@TampinesD181,1831,66749 / 31+40.9%
IconD021,7721,76722 / 29−0.3%
One-North ResidencesD051,5451,51621 / 14−1.9%
The Coast at Sentosa CoveD041,6511,52111 / 14−7.9%
V on ShentonD012,1021,88522 / 21−10.3%
Marina One ResidencesD012,4071,90889 / 49−20.7%

URA caveat data, private non-landed resale, single-unit caveats, psf on strata area. Retrieved 18 Sep 2026. The full 288-row table is in the framework.

And the regions underneath them resale median psf, calendar 2022 vs 1 Jan–18 Sep 2026
Region2022 median psfCaveats2026 YTD median psfCaveatsChange
Outside Central (OCR)S$1,2038,465S$1,5375,146+27.8%
Rest of Central (RCR)S$1,5873,537S$1,9622,530+23.7%
Core Central (CCR)S$2,0132,172S$2,1901,504+8.8%
All regionsS$1,35914,174S$1,7179,180+26.4%

Same dataset. A rising region did not lift every project in it, which is the point of the next section.

Two owners, same four years

Same lease start, opposite result.

Both are 99-year leasehold condos with leases starting in 2011 and 2012. Both owners did nothing for four years except pay the loan. One of them is roughly half a million dollars ahead on a 1,000 sq ft unit. The other is roughly half a million behind.

Property A

CityLife@Tampines

District 18 · 99-year lease from 2012 · Tampines Central 7

+40.9%S$1,183 → S$1,667 psf
+S$484,000on 1,000 sq ft, at median psf
ResaleFloorSq ftPricepsf
Sep 202606–101,292S$2,130,0001,649
Aug 202606–101,195S$2,061,8001,726
Jul 202601–051,163S$1,930,0001,660

49 resale caveats in the first window, 31 in the second.

Property B

Marina One Residences

District 1 · 99-year lease from 2011 · Marina Way

−20.7%S$2,407 → S$1,908 psf
−S$499,000on 1,000 sq ft, at median psf
ResaleFloorSq ftPricepsf
Sep 202601–051,130S$2,150,0001,902
Jul 202606–101,109S$2,170,0001,957
Jun 202616–201,206S$2,601,6882,158

89 resale caveats in the first window, 49 in the second.

URA caveat data, single-unit resales, all unit sizes for the medians; the three rows shown are 85–125 sqm resales, Jun–Sep 2026. Dollar figures are the psf change multiplied by 1,000 sq ft, before costs. Retrieved 18 Sep 2026. Results vary by unit, floor and timing.

Your first move

The flat has probably done its job. The equity is sitting there.

For most owners the first property was an HDB flat, and the record since 2017 has been kind to it. The question is not whether it went up. It is what the equity does for the next 20 years: stay locked in a paid-off flat, or fund a second move that is chosen with the same discipline as the table above.

4-room resale medians, 2017 vs 2026 to date ten towns of 25; all towns S$408,000 → S$628,000, +53.9%
Town2017 medianSales2026 YTD medianSalesChange
SembawangS$348,000248S$600,000279+72.4%
Toa PayohS$598,000230S$1,002,944296+67.7%
HougangS$388,000410S$618,444438+59.4%
WoodlandsS$345,000723S$548,000657+58.8%
TampinesS$430,000510S$668,000677+55.3%
SengkangS$415,000779S$640,000632+54.2%
PunggolS$443,944776S$680,000645+53.2%
QueenstownS$705,000184S$1,049,444224+48.9%
BedokS$418,000389S$600,000397+43.5%
Ang Mo KioS$468,000250S$620,000221+32.5%

data.gov.sg HDB resale flat prices, 4-room, full year 2017 vs 1 Jan–18 Sep 2026, towns with at least 20 sales in both. Retrieved 18 Sep 2026. All 25 towns are in the framework.

The two decisions

The price at the door, and the buyer at the exit.

Strip away the brochure and the second move comes down to two things you control on the day you sign: what you pay relative to what the area already trades at, and who will realistically buy the unit from you in five to eight years.

Decision one · the entry price

Twelve launches where the developer was still selling in 2021–22 and the same projects now trade on the resale market. The new-launch label was the same for all twelve. The entry price was not.

ProjectRegionDeveloper psf 2021–22Resale psf 2025–26CaveatsChange
JadeScapeRCR · D201,7712,35524 / 63+33.0%
Parc ClematisOCR · D051,7612,255328 / 130+28.1%
ClavonOCR · D051,7012,15265 / 37+26.5%
Treasure at TampinesOCR · D181,4441,799101 / 120+24.6%
Affinity at SerangoonOCR · D191,5421,84672 / 70+19.7%
Amber ParkRCR · D152,4762,913119 / 24+17.7%
MidwoodOCR · D231,7291,919148 / 54+11.0%
Normanton ParkRCR · D051,8562,012666 / 62+8.4%
Kopar at NewtonCCR · D092,4872,511146 / 23+1.0%
Leedon GreenCCR · D102,7832,681280 / 10−3.7%
Avenue South ResidenceRCR · D032,3212,180245 / 45−6.1%
The MCCR · D072,7642,51039 / 13−9.2%

URA caveat data. Developer psf = median of New Sale caveats Sep 2021–Dec 2022 (later-phase sales, not launch weekend); resale psf = median Oct 2025–Sep 2026. Projects with ≥20 developer and ≥8 resale caveats; 28 qualify, 12 shown across the range. Retrieved 18 Sep 2026.

Decision two · the exit buyer

Whoever buys from you later will price the lease, the layout and the supply around them. You can already see them doing it in the HDB market this year, where the same flat type sells for very different money depending on the years left.

4-room resale, 2026 to dateSalesMedian pricevs 80+ years
80 or more years of lease left3,525S$708,000—
70–79 years1,644S$579,500−S$128,500
60–69 years1,384S$588,000−S$120,000
50–59 years1,465S$550,000−S$158,000
Under 50 years169S$530,888−S$177,112

data.gov.sg HDB resale flat prices, 4-room, all towns, 1 Jan–18 Sep 2026, grouped by remaining lease. Location and floor also move these medians; the framework shows the bands town by town.

The 30-year arithmetic

The loan is not the enemy. Idle equity is.

Most owners know their monthly instalment to the dollar and have never once worked out what the property itself did. Here is the arithmetic side by side, on a S$500,000 loan over 30 years.

HDB loan · 2.6% S$2,002 a month, for 360 months
Total interest over the term S$220,611
Bank fixed · 1.40% S$1,702 a month, at the lowest two-year fixed rate quoted this month
Total interest if held at that rate S$112,616
CPF OA · 2.5% accrued S$219,514 accrued interest to refund on S$200,000 of OA used, after 30 years
What an OCR resale unit did in four years, on 1,000 sq ft +S$334,000

Loan figures are standard amortisation on S$500,000 over 360 months; rates from the CPF Board release for 1 Jul–30 Sep 2026 (OA 2.5%, HDB concessionary 2.6%) and PropertyNet.SG's rate table dated 4 Sep 2026 (1.40% two-year fixed, indicative on a S$1M private-property loan; fixed rates are not offered on building-under-construction loans). Bank rates reset after the lock-in. OCR figure: median resale psf S$1,203 in 2022 to S$1,537 in 2026 YTD, multiplied by 1,000 sq ft. Illustrative, not advice.

Send me the framework
How I decide a second move

Four steps, in this order.

01

Price the equity you already have

Current value from closed caveats, not a portal estimate. Minus the outstanding loan, minus CPF principal and accrued interest, minus costs. That number, not the headline value, is what you have to work with.

02

Work back from the exit buyer

Who buys this unit from you in five to eight years, what will they be able to borrow, and what will they compare it against? A layout the resale market rewards beats a layout the showflat sells.

03

Overlay the competing supply

At the end of Q2 2026 there were 15,810 unsold units with planning approval and another 18,153 awaiting approval. Where they land relative to your exit year matters more than the launch-day queue.

04

Filter with the record, not the brochure

Every candidate goes through the same three tables above: the project's own resale history, its region, and what the exit buyer paid for comparable units this year. If the entry price fails the test, we wait.

Unsold supply figures from URA's Q2 2026 real estate statistics release, 24 Jul 2026.

What's inside

The Second Move Framework, six chapters.

A working document, not a brochure. Every table on this page is in it in full, with the worksheets to apply them to your own numbers.

Chapter 01

The equity worksheet

Value, loan, CPF refund with accrued interest, ABSD and costs, in one page, so you know your real starting figure.

Chapter 02

The 288-project table

Every non-landed project with ten or more resales in both windows, ranked, with district, tenure and caveat counts.

Chapter 03

The exit-buyer checklist

Nine questions about lease, layout, floor, supply and financing that decide whether a unit resells easily in year six.

Chapter 04

Lease bands, town by town

What buyers paid this year for the same flat type at 80+, 70–79, 60–69 and 50–59 years remaining, in every town.

Chapter 05

The 2026 rules

ABSD, LTV (75% for a first loan, lower past a 30-year tenure or age 65), TDSR and the 30 / 35-year tenure caps, in plain English.

Chapter 06

Three worked cases

HDB to condo, condo to condo, and hold versus sell, each worked through the framework with real caveats.

Free PDFSent to your WhatsAppUpdated September 2026No obligation
Stella Thio
Who is writing this

Stella Thio

PropNex Realty Pte Ltd · CEA [CEA no.]

I spent the first part of my career pricing developments from the inside, and the second part helping owners decide the move that comes after their first home. The framework is what I use at the table, written down.

Project Chief for 14 Core Central Region developments
PropNex Millionaire, five years running, 2020–2024
Six-time Champion Luxury Tagger
Former Senior Dealing Director; NUS Economics and Statistics

[Credentials as supplied in the brief. Confirm with Stella, then delete this line.]

“Nobody regrets the 30 years of payments. They regret finding out in year twelve that the unit next door was the one that went up.”

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Thirty years is a long time to find out you picked the wrong one.

Get the framework, run your own numbers through it, and message me if you want a second pair of eyes on a specific unit.

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